Garry Golden

(Older post from Jan. 2007 - could use an update- but I need to migrate all my posts from the old Wordpress first!!)

As the YouTube led video revolution fades as the novel story of this digital age, we can see quite clearly that virtual worlds such as Second Life are ready for their mainstream media explosion as the next ‘big thing’. Second Life media references have hit CNN, Business Week, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, et al.

I suspect Second Life and the ‘metaverse’ will be a household name by the end of 2007. But what will virtual worlds disrupt? Will it steal video’s thunder? Or are we only at the beginning of a new age of video?

[Note: Feb. 13th - I thank Intel for announcing confidently that the ‘Tera Era’ will usher in a new era of computing experiences - including real time synthetic video/real video blending. Until Monday’s (Feb. 07) announcement of the 80 multicore chip, I felt that this post - written in late January - was lacking in real world feasibility. … Now I feel better…! TiVo (and cutting out commercials) is a mild disruption when compared to the potential future ability of manipulating images in real time as they stream into our homes. What follows the age of ’streaming video’? How about ’streaming curtains’ that allow us to censor/change video images?]

The short list of potential applications for virtual worlds include: social spaces/networks, commerce (retail, advertising, 3D manufacturing), work spaces (video conferencing, collaboration, project management, simulation), entertainment/media creation and (my favorite!) ‘geospatial’ web browsing (‘..SL is the new web browser’).

While virtual worlds are certain to receive plenty of media hype in ‘07, significant (active) mainstream participation will likely take much longer to reach a critical mass. Virtual worlds are less familiar to average folk when compared to other forms of media and social spaces. They have a high novelty factor. Until the obstacles related to in-world interfaces and social barriers are lowered, it might take another decade for virtual worlds to reach its full potential for disruption. (This is about the same time (ten years) it took for video and user generated video to make its way to mainstream audiences.)

Meanwhile video continues to explode online - amateur video blogs, popular TV shows, online learning, advertising, media. etc. - are becoming more integrated into our daily web experiences. And we’re only at the beginning of this age. In another five to ten years web delivered television might find mass adoption. I think it will be difficult to take away from the momentum in video based media and communication.

At the same time there are some interesting elements of 3D tools and virtual environments that could have a more near term disruptive effect on the world of video.

What intrigues me – is the hybrid potential of video and virtual environments. The ability to layer ‘real’ images with synthetic elements– and to place ‘real world’ images in fully virtual worlds could have a profound impact on our use of both. Microsoft, Google and Adobe are the most likely incumbents to push this age of hybrid worlds and the next great 3D platforms.

Microsoft’s Photosynth – holds enormous potential in bridging personal worlds with synthetic environments (video). But Google, always a quick mover, is pushing Sketch up as a tool for geo-browsers and has opened up to mash ups with ‘photo stitching software’ (II) and ‘photo match’ (link) (video) in blending real world. (Microsoft will of course try to keep everything in one package…) Meanwhile Adobe is quietly enjoying the domination of Flash media in this early stage of the web based video age - and will soon release their Apollo platform for rich interface applications. It remains a software company largely devoted to developers and experienced users— but I suspect the market potential for wider use of its media creation tools might lead it along a new path.

What changes might we see in this hybrid 3D/video landscape…?

Consider three shifts in the syn-video age…

Shift from website to webworlds
The interfaces and user experience of traditional websites remains cumbersome and are far from intuitive. Your bank website looks nothing like your bank. You have to interact with words not people.

Video might offer a more fluid experience… Building on the success of low-cost text publishing blog software I suspect new startups will soon release ‘Flash’ video tools for the masses. I can only imagine the explosion of content around the adoption of low cost or free software that allows us to blend virtual layers with real world video?! The result might be the end of websites as we know it. Imagine walking into a bank web-world (that looks exactly as it should) - and being greeted by a ‘real person’ or an avatar instead of having to select from buttons on the side of the page. (This might be too difficult to explain in words right now… but remember when ‘web-surfing’ was impossible to conceptualize)

Your actions would mimic real world interactions. Signing in at a desk, walking up to a counter for the transaction and seeing the manager with questions. Each movement would signify a higher or lower level of security on the site. In each instance – the action would be more intuitive than fumbling to remember your password or clicking to find the right button. It is essentially ‘interactive TV’ - - an old techie idea but I’m certain that it will have an unexpected twist.

I am still searching for current examples –but the most impressive blend of video / site is by Luis Santi Jr – a Miami based designer. My question is - when will these skills will be tapped from rest of us with easy to use software…?! [Also here…)

Shift from public to ‘private’ worlds: Enterprise & Telepresence
I suspect that the next five years will bring tremendous growth to private social worlds such as SecondLife, There.com, Sims, Ibiza, Whyville, Habbo, et al. But there are a host of issues related to standards, cross-platform capabilities and adoption patterns that might cap the coming exponential growth in these worlds. Regardless it will be exciting…

Beyond five years I suspect we’ll begin to talk about Enterprise Virtual Worlds – as corporations begin to leverage the advantages of in-world communication for their clients and global teams. These worlds will likely be exclusive and more secure- and I suspect more profitable for mainstream companies. The demand for – and dollars spent on building private worlds might dwarf those in public environments (but I welcome a case against this forecast!)

Again, I suspect that video (hybrid version) might trump virtual worlds in this space. Video conferencing is not dead and might be in its last stages of poor performance. There are signs that telepresence is climbing its way out of the Hype Cycle’s Trough of Disillusionment. We have the infrastructure for high bandwidth video in place and enterprise software giants such as Cisco and HP are now in the early stages of building a corporate case for these high end systems. Virtual worlds and the growing age of video-based communication might accelerate this long-heralded age of video-conferencing. But in the end I think the world of enterprise will want its workers seeing ‘real’ faces not avatars.

Shift from being viewers to censors (Parental Controls / Painting over) - Streaming Curtains
The notion of TiVo like devices ‘skipping’ commercials is widely recognized as a disruptive capability. Is there a next step in the 3D age?

Take the notion of photo-stitching, image recognition and CGI layering to its mature stages of software and hardware development (say 2015-20) . Make ‘painting’ over real moving images - or creating your own 3D animations - as easy as typing on Word or making a Power Point. Put it into a software package like Sketch-up and loaded onto a laptop for consumers to explore.

Now can we imagine consumers using 3D software to add layers and edit out video itself? (Real time filtering of streaming video…) Can we imagine consumers placing filters and restrictions on how they wish to perceive the look of people and places?

For parents who do not want to expose children to the adult world… Every time the system detects ‘bare shoulders’ or something inappropriate- your software filters add some clothing. Not enough diversity in your child’s programming – how about adding people of different races and ethnicities? Social engineering by ‘digital painting’…?!

The ultimate in control, or another burden of responsibility in the digital age? Will parents see this as a headache - or will content producers develop premium services - offering parents choices for how characters (real or avatar) look to their children’s eyes once the stream arrives?

Real time, realistic synthetic layers over video…. that is more exciting to me - than virtual clubs. Avatars will surely have their day- but the era of the video star has only just begun.

Links to Explore:

• CASA / Digital Urban group
• Worlds Within Worlds – London (on YouTube)
• ‘Metaverse’ project
• Bloggers - Mark Wallace; Jerry Paffendorf
• Virtual World related companies –
  The Electric Sheep, Co., Millions of Us; ActiveWorlds;
• Ogle – from Eyebeam Open Labs: http://ogle.eyebeamresearch.org/
• The Khronos Group on open standards for dynamic media (YouTube clip)
• Croquet Project
• LogiTech –Video Effects