Video Conferencing / 3D Web – Walking up the “Slope of Enlightenment”
Professional futurists often say that one of the most common mistakes made in forecasting change is to overestimate change in the short term, or underestimate change in the long term. Too often change is hyped in the beginning; and ignored as a real long term disruptive force.
We use a number of tools and techniques to help track changes, map the system, and clear up confusion about the maturity or adoption of a technology. One widely used tool (popularized by Gartner) is the ‘Hype Cycle’. Have a look before reading on…focus on the ’slope of enlightenment’ and then imagine where we might be heading in the next five years with web based experiences that are based on video environments.
Video conferencing is an old idea- that was probably over-hyped in the late 1990s. But I think we might be underestimating the next wave of video-driven web elements- and its potential to disrupt the interface between with B2B, B2C, C2C, et al. (e.g. Busines to Business)
- Are companies ready to build interfaces that are based on direct video connections? Is their customer service department prepared to have face-to-face interactions? Do they have ‘emotive’ software to evaluate a user’s emotional state - and respond accordingly? What about instructional or interactive video platforms for delivering information or upgrades related to products or services? What about the training, experience and pay scale of representatives who must engage clients via video vs over the phone?
- Are families ready to reach out and communicate through video 2.0? Will we have video cameras and screens that connect our kitchens? Could Grandmom be persuaded to go ‘online’ if it were based on video and touch screen rather than hypertext and mouse-clicking? What if she could ‘play through the video space’ with her grandchildren? (See below..)
- Are we ready to start looking at highly evolved video interfaces that let us play, research and share a common ‘video social space’?
What am I talking about…? …interactive video based environments for social interactions
MIT’s early project, Microsoft Play Together demo, playing chess here, the video version of Photosynth, Touchlight, Philips wall drawing prototype, Quicktime VR Panoramic are amazing but what about software to translate video environments into panoramic streams?, MIT Sketching application; Keep your eye on programmers involved in next generation scripting lanaguges - Flash here, and here , DOM/DHTML here, sharing white board widgets here, and here) I am very interested in understanding the convergence of video/virtual images around advanced programming systems.
- Are schools ready to upgrade their learning environments around video connections that can bridge worlds?
Cisco’s commercial… - The Human Network: Staring Down India vs US students! A great scenario for education - but still presents video and dispaly screens only as a broadcast medium. The real potential is when those children start touching the screen and manipulating objects in real-time - turning the screen into a shared space.
Video as a social space is about using the screen as a sandbox and interface for touching the same objects, writing on the same ‘board’, sending things in motion that can be ’stopped’ by the person on the other end…
Video as a social space is two way, interactive… not a TV program.
There are many pieces to this puzzle. Interfaces, hardware, software, technology standards/platforms, etc. But the reality is that mainstream users have no idea of how much their web experience might transform when video and 3D worlds hit the mainstream markets…
Continue below with a few notes from this past week:
Software / Service Providers:
1) Google has acquired a video conferencing software portfolio from Marratech (
[Follows last months’ big news of Cisco buying WebEx – video / web based meetings.]
2) Adobe’s release of a new media player and growing interest in its Flex/Apollo platform for rich internet applications… I am very excited about Adobe right now- and I would not be shocked if they entered the hardware consumer industry at some point in the future. Adobe is the ‘Mac’ of the software world– and their tools could easily migrate to ‘physical digital objects’ in the future.
3) Microsoft has released SilverLight to compete with Adobe’s Flash. This ‘cross platform, cross browser’ system is their recognition that future rich web applications should operate regardless of the operating system or device! Good to see Microsoft opening up a bit- and this competition in an evolved ‘flash like’ space should be great for the web experience…
3D World Notes - Getting users comfortable with 3D authoring tools…
1) New Adobe Photoshop understands 3D” – umm….
2) Former Keyhole (pre-Google Earth company) joins team and buys virtual construction software firm….
3) Techcrunch hyped start up Fotowoosh software for making 3D out of real photos
Hardware Notes – Supporting a Video and 3D Web experience
The expectation here is that the next consumer internet experience will be based around video and 3D spaces…
IBM, Sun, Cisco, Motorola, and Intel are all getting ready…
1) IBM is bringing gaming chip technology to deal with massive graphic processing (link) –
Wall Street Journal (on 4/26) uses the words ‘bitverse’, ‘metaverse’ and ‘virtual worlds’ in its reporting!!
2) Sun Microsystem Server- anticipates coming age of the video web…
From NY Times:
The Sun machine — an ultra-fast video server designed by the company’s co-founder, Andreas Bechtolsheim —is potentially powerful enough to transmit different standard video streams simultaneously to everyone watching TV in a city the size of
3) Intel is also spreading its wings around its ‘Era of Tera’ computing… They have plans for dozens and then hundreds of cores on single chips. This ‘tera’ era of computation will allow for real time video ‘stitching’ or editing, motion capture (without fancy body monitoring plugs), etc…
4) Motorolla buys Terayon – maker of video processing products for targeting regional/local interests of viewers;
4a) Motorola also acquires home media / wireless broadband transmission (HDTV, et al) - Link from News.com
Miscellaneous
1) Utah researchers look at infrared based broadband wireless networks..
2) Technology companies are fighting for wireless broadband – against established telecoms… See unlikely list of partners in the White Spaces Coalition –via ArsTechnica
3) Broadcast video – of course more traditional programming delivered over the web is revolutionary for the media industry. Important notes: Joost (of Kazaa, Skype founders) is still in private beta but signing partnerships with major media outlets; BitTorrent has been working closely with Hollywood studios for sometime; Comcast continues push to up-end YouTubes of the world…
4) Personal hat based video cameras for Police- via Pasta & Vinegar blog (one of my favorite sites)!
5) Random video blog note… Enjoyed this episode of Rocketboom on Art of Reason –
Nice idea to connect Gartner Hype cycle into the story. What I like about the Hype Cycle is that it tells you not only “where” you are, but “how fast” you are going.
It’s interesting to note how successful Apple has been with its web conferencing system. It’s built-in to their laptops - no messy wires or interface.
Also Cisco’s purchase of WebEx last month is worth mention…