-Garry

[First, an important question: Which is more likely to happen first - The ‘end’ of oil? Or the end of the combustion engine?
I think the logical tendency to deal with ‘peak oil production’ scenarios is to seek substitutes for liquid oil. I take a different approach- and ask- how do we eliminate the combustion engine which needs oil.

I prefer to explore futures in which the auto industry leaves the bulky, mechanical combustion engine behind for electric propulsion systems. These wheel based electric motors are likely powered by a combination of batteries, hydrogen fuel cells and capacitors. The industry’s motivation might not be to save the planet- but rather reduce manufacturing costs, increase performance, expand design options and tap electricity for in-car digital services.     And remember, you cannot solve the oil gap shortage through wind/solar. Combustion engines require liquid fuels.  Wind and solar producing electricity are no good there!  Shift to an electric motor platform and renewables can produce electricity or hydrogen.]

For me, the conversation of how do we end the combustion engine era, is much more strategic. At the same time, I think it is critical to advance commercialization of next generation biofuels. Above all else, I am a big advocate of bioenergy.

So, let’s assume a future for combustion engines and demand for biofuels. Here are the resources from the radio interview:

Articles to Explore:

• “15 Start ups to Watch” via Earth2Tech blog
• “Algae Everywhere>.” via EcoGeek blog
• “After 30 years, algae-to-fuel finally gets the green light” via GreenFuelsForecast

Blogs to Watch:

• Earth2Tech
• http://biopact.com/
• http://gas2.org/
• http://www.biodieselmagazine.com/
• http://www.icis.com/blogs/biofuels/

Videos to Watch

1) CNN article / video on Valcent vertial bioreactors
http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/04/01/algae.oil/

Interviews on www.greenenergytv.com
2) Renewable Biodiesel Algae - by Solazyme
http://www.greenenergytv.com/default.aspx?1472348255

3) Algae As Holy Grail of Biofuel - Valcent Products
http://www.greenenergytv.com/default.aspx?1472348255#1213892433

4) TED videos - search for:
Juan Enriquez: Why can’t we grow new energy?
http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/193

And several by Craig Venter (on synthetic biology- designing microbes to maximize efficiency/performance)

Companies to Watch:

Aquaflow Bionomic, Virent, Nanologix, Inc., LS9, Renewable Synthetic Fuel (RSFuel), Amyris Biotechnologies, Synthetic Genomics, Coskata, Solix, Mascoma, Gulf Ethanol, Verenium, Iogen, Agrivida, Eirzyme, BioHydrogen (UK), UOP, BioMaxx, Chevron, Aurora Biofuels: – and dozens of other companies.

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I have struggled to post on a regular basis, and to make those posts accessible to wider audiences. One of the downsides of working as a professionally oriented futurist, is that you saturate yourself with media feeds and become disconnected with the base of information more widely consumed by general audiences.

There is clearly a role for futurists to help bring people along and to build a foundation knowledge base for thinking and talking about change. Initially, I did not want to use this blog to serve as that place for creating a foundation.

Instead, I wrote two or three steps ahead - for an audience of other bloggers already engaged by in-depth conversations on topics like energy, social media, globalization (et al). But the blogosphere is not the web! And the other night, thanks to a friend’s insights on what was missing (e.g. my personality/energy), I realized the need to shift towards accessibility and posts that reflect myself as a person.

So I am now looking to evolve this site - around visual presentations with audio overlays (simliar to Larry Lessig’s screencasts). I am more inclined to speak than to write… so this shift should suit me well.

The ‘Futures Salon’ Meetup(.com) is the local chapter of Futures Salons sponsored by John Smart and the Accelerating Foundation Studies.

Saturday, February 16, 2008 at 3:00 PM

Stone Creek Bar
140 E. 27th Street New York , NY 10016

Details: http://future.meetup.com/49/calendar/7030141/

My presentation will look at the future of energy by focusing on the challenges of global dynamics of demand, and plausible breakthroughs and market-based strategies which could lead to a century of energy abundance.

This presentation will apply futures studies concepts to the greening of hydrocarbons, the dawn of bio-energy, wheel based electric motors and the automobile industry, and the idea of ‘Personal Energy’ packets to bring the world online into the electricity age via H2 fuel cells.

[This not a talk to make you depressed about climate change; nor is about bashing oil/coal industries. We’ll be forward looking and energy agnostic!]

It is a small group gathering of talented minds. You should join us!

—

Also, a good friend and colleague from Austin, Texas - Joel Greenberg [formerly of GSD&M; Electric Sheep Company(vitual worlds)] is launching a new career around cleantech and the energy industry.

Last week, his blog ‘Unmassed‘ looked at the transportation industry - pros and cons of Plug-in Hybrids, H2 fuel cells, and challenges of India/China’s auto market.

[What about ‘green energy’?
‘Green’ cannot and should not be ignored. But defining ‘green’ can be complicated given the range of mixed agendas, and I see no real ‘resolutions’ being widely accepted. Even if the industry transformed itself- becoming totally carbon-neutral, Planet Earth is still destined to be transformed by human activity in the next century. Even if you flood India, China, America and Europe with ‘green’ energy - the end result for global ecosystems and planetary resource supplies is NOT neutral.   Asia’s middle class consumption patterns will transform the planet- whether they get power from coal or solar. There are second and third levels of implications to sustainability that must be resolved after we create a CO2 energy industry.  But that is a conversation for another post!]

Global demand is expected to double in the next twenty-five years. All aspects of the energy industry should expand. All ‘primary inputs’ (hydrocarbons, renewables, nuclear), all ‘conversion methods’ (biological, combustion, electrochemical) and all ‘carriers’ (electricity, hydrogen). Everyone grows…

Meanwhile groups and agendas compete for attention and emotions. Wind people dismiss clean coal; battery people dismiss fuel cells; others say expand nuclear before solar. And oil must deal with the most criticisms from energy independence folks and those watching the peaking of production. Adding to the confusion, there is still no agreement over timelines for expecting industry changing innovation or whether we pass a tipping point of climate change or managing resource depletion.

The most forward-looking strategies include greening hydrocarbons, commercializing bio energy, expanding renewables and nuclear, and pushing forward hydrogen fuel cells for transportation and micro-power markets. H2 packets could emerge as a ‘leap frog’ energy business model for delivering electricity to billions of people who are not connected to modern electricity grids.

So what breakthroughs happened in ‘07 that could make this possible?

This is a longer more tech-science post of research advanced during 2007:

#1 Nano-bio Research / Bio-energy – nanowires plugged into hydrogenase, graphene sheets couple enzymes, controlling enzymatic activity, bio energy from bacteria/algae

#2 Nanostructured Catalysts – Fischer-Tropsch liquid fuels, green chemistry, biomimicry, role of carbon, Greening Hydrocarbons - desulphurization

#3 Growing Solar – Challenges to growth, photocatalysts for H2, artificial photosynthesis, graphene sheets and nanotubes, fundamentals of photosynthesis

#4 Hydrogen storage – advances in solid state storage (absorption/adsorption strategies); liquid carriers

#5 Hydrogen production with nanostructured catalysts (photo-, electro-, and bio-)

#6 Batteries – Real world challenges of ‘plug in’ battery vehicles

[Fuel cells - I am going to write a separate post on micro-fuel cells and vehicles…]
Click below to continue….

(more…)

The topic was ‘bio energy’ - using microorganisms to produce and convert energy. Any practical applications could re-write the 21^st century energy industry- by ‘greening’ the hydrocarbon fuels industry, accelerating the role of biofuels, and expanding access to energy carriers of electricity and hydrogen.

Used to its full potential, the age of bio energy could create a world of clean, abundant energy- and calm the nerves of alarmists worried about the end of the world. Some believe it is the great story of energy in the 21^st century!

Energy from a ‘bio’ perspective
At the most basic level energy (except nuclear/wind) is the result of sunlight and biological processes. Coal derives from ancient plant life/biomass; oil and natural gas are likely ancient (diatoms) microorganisms. Light is transformed into electrical energy or chemical energy via plants which are eaten by animals/humans. Most all energy gets to us (immediately or millions of years later) through biological energy pathways. The goal of bio-energy research is to identify the organisms that do this conversion well enough to study (e.g. termites/biofuels)- and then replicate it in a controlled environment to observe the phenomena at the molecular level of proteins and genes.

Chemical vs Biological Conversion?
Today we take various forms of energy and convert it using relatively crude methods – we burn coal/natural gas for electricity; and we blow up liquid gasoline for heat/mechanical motion. These methods are cheap but inefficient and dirty. We convert energy largely through chemistry and ‘brute force’ (tip to Juan Enriquez, TED presentation). Biology offers a more elegant approach to converting energy that could make current fuels cleaner and more efficient, and expand what we consider ‘resources’ in the 21^st century. Imagine looking at emissions from coal stacks as food for microbes that produce clean hydrogen or biofuels?

History of Energy Eras
Our world has been transformed by very distinct ‘eras’ of energy- that introduced fundamentally new ways of converting energy into a usable form. While each ‘era’ was once considered strange territory to early pioneers, with no exception, each era continues today:

• The era of ‘glucose/carbohydrate’ energy via plant/human/animal power
• The era of combustion (fire of biomass, steam, gasoline)
• The era of kinetic energy (from wind, hydro, waves)
• The era of electromagnetism (electricity, photo-)
• The era of chemical (electrochemical batteries, H2 fuel cells)
• The era of nuclear

The ‘era’ of biological energy leverages microorganisms as energy producing ‘factories’ that create useable forms of energy (liquid fuels, hydrogen, and electricity).

[Note – ‘bio energy’ is not necessarily the same as biofuels. Biofuels can be created by chemical processes (transesterfication), or biological processes (e.g. cellulosic ethanol). Bioenergy is defined by its process, not end product.

What can we expect from this bio era of energy?
The goal of bio energy is to convert raw components (cellulose, light, biomass waste, carbon dioxide, water, etc.) into useable forms of energy – electrons, hydrogen or liquid fuels.

Bio-energy solutions can be seen as both a new primary fuel source (e.g. algae-based biofuels) and a new approach to converting energy into carriers – electricity and hydrogen. (e.g. hydrogen breathing bacteria; microbial fuel cells)

I will skip a Biology 101 lesson – but it is important to understand that bioenergy solutions come from the three ‘kingdoms’ of life on the planet. The easiest way to move forward is to talk about ‘microbes’ or micro organisms broadly to include:

• Eukaryotes – (organism with cells that have nucleus) such as algae with photosynthetic capabilities
• Prokaryotes – (organism with cells without nucleus) bacteria that convert biomass (or other compounds) in liquid fuels or gases (hydrogen; methane)
• Archaea – the most ancient, mysterious kingdom of life on the planet
• Also use role of Bacteriophage (viruses that use bacteria to replicate)

Microbes from each of these three ‘kingdoms’ of life offer their own advantages and challenges in energy conversion. The promise of ‘synthetic biology’ is the combining of the most ideal cellular processes into functional organisms. (Below)

Bio-energy researchers are seeking answers to fundamental questions about energy-related processes shaped by proteins (enzymes), genes that code those proteins, and other bio-structures involved in basic cellular processes.

• How electrons travel through these (protein) enzymes / cellular pathways? (e.g. ‘pathway engineering’)
• The role of oxygen
  (e.g. Some hydrogenase (H2 producing enzymes) do not function well in the presence of oxygen. So engineering the system to block the oxygen can help increase efficiency; or by self selecting bacteria that are more oxygen tolerant.)
• The role of sulfur and carbon molecules (in poisoning a catalyst)
• The role of light (of varying wavelengths)
• The role of metals (e.g. iron, nickel) inside central energy producing cores
• The selection of proteins (light activated proteins known as proteorhodopsins, which can be turned into ‘motors’)
• Growing environments – challenges of managing surface area, temperature, humidity, feedstock, gases (presence of oxygen, et al) – so that microbes can thrive

Bioenergy applications- One purpose, Two roads forward
The first option is to use naturally occuring microbes in controlled environments to produce a desirable output (e.g. biofuels, hydrogen or electricity)

The second option is to design ‘synthetic’ microbes for the same controlled environments. The benefit would be creating microbes with ideal energy pathways that maximize conversion efficiencies - or serve a particular role. (E.g. capturing emissions from a coal plant; processing sewage; light-based environments) The science and ethical issues are clearly more challenging for the synthetic biology path!

How is the progress going?
The tone among researchers is bright and forward looking. And the private sector seems very interested in scalable bioenergy strategies. I’d love Stephen Colbert to just brush up on the last two years of breakthrough research before his next interview with Craig Venter.

In 2006, University of California at Berkeley researchers engineered algae (C. reinhardtii) able to produce hydrogen

In 2006, researchers at the University of Bremen and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution found micro organisms that dissolve organic matter into natural gas.

In 2006, researchers at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory scientists became the first team to measure the electrical charge from proteins disposing of excess energy from a metabolic reaction.

In 2006, research from USC and Rice University started to look closely at how bacteria (Shewanella oneidensis) serve on the anode side of a bio fuel cell (side which gathers electrons). [Bio fuel cells - Enzymes can ‘chew up’ material to produce hydrogen, or they can also chew up hydrogen on the surface of a fuel cell to capture the electron.]

In 2007, teams of researcher from MIT (also Berkeley) used E. coli with proteorhodopsin proteins (light activated) that act as motors with the potential to produce energy or create drug molecules.

In 2007, Penn State University researchers used ‘bacteria (exoelectrogens) to extract hydrogen (via a microbial electrolysis cell) from biodegradable organic substances ‘from grass clippings to wastewater’.

In 2007, researchers from Virginia Tech, ORNL, and Univ Georgia used synthetic biology principles to combine enzymes (not normally collaborating in microorganisms) to convert starch water (polysaccharides/water) into hydrogen. The process works at low temperature and atmospheric pressures- and according to their tests achieves an equivalent of 14.8% H2/mass carrying capacity.

In 2007, researchers at Washington University in St. Louis and Berkeley National Lab shifted our understanding of energy transfer across ‘levels’/states during photosynthesis. Prior to this research it was believed to be a hierarchal stepping or ‘hopping’, but this research suggests it is a more non-linear, quantum behavior of photosynthesis– where the protein sees all possible paths and chooses the most efficient.

In 2007, researchers at Oregon State University designed a microbial fuel cell capable of generating about 10 times more electricity than previously possible from an air cathode microbial fuel cell of the same size.

In 2007, researchers at Saint Louis University in Missouri developed a fuel cell battery that runs on sugar sources.

In 2007, Japanese researchers created a (Ni-Ru) molecule that mimics the hydrogen producing enzymes found in stomach-ulcer causing Helicobacter pylori

In 2007, the US Department of Energy announces three major bio-energy research centers to be led by teams anchored around: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the University of Wisconsin in Madison, and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

In 2007, the Biodesign Institute (Arizona State University) announced a significant research partnership with energy company BP and Science Foundation Arizona (SFAz) to develop a renewable source of biofuel from cyanobacteria.

Private Sector….
Real change is not often recognized until private companies get involved (in no particular order or stage of development)… Aquaflow Bionomic, Virent, Nanologix, Inc., LS9, Renewable Synthetic Fuel (RSFuel), Amyris Biotechnologies, Synthetic Genomics, Gulf Ethanol, Verenium, Iogen, Agrivida, Eirzyme, BioHydrogen (UK), UOP, BioMaxx, Chevron, – and dozens of other companies.

What to expect in the years and decades ahead?
Bio-energy is moving forward as expectations for meeting global energy demand grows. While ‘bio energy’ is certainly a new ‘era’ of energy production and conversion, it is not an end to other dominate sources of power. The beauty of bio is in its elegant approach to capturing energy from all systems- from coal to pure light.

Innovation will be driven by new knowledge gained from a range of disciplines: proteomics, genomics, nano-bio systems, and computing (the ‘digitization’ of biology – tip to Craig Venter’s dream!). The ‘game changing’ era of bio energy could be found in the emerging field of synthetic biology which treats biological components as both software/hardware. We will certainly have to deal with the mainstream ethical debates of bio energy, but that’s another story and blog entry!

Learning more…
Researching bioenergy falls into the rabbit hole category. You’ll find no shortage of ideas to explore, lessons to learn and questions to ask. I find the best way to build one’s knowledge base is to start with University level researchers working on fundamental bioenergy questions.

Research leaders include (again – in no ranking or order of importance! This is just a list…)

• Jay Keasling (UC Berkeley)
• Bruce Logan (Penn State University)
• James Dumesic (University of Wisconsin-Madison)
• Kenneth Nealson (USC)
• Michael Seibert (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)
• Andreas Lüttge (Rice University)
• Juergen Polle (City University of New York, Brooklyn)
• Dr. Randy Cortright (Founder of Virent)
• Ed Delong (MIT)
• Jan Liphardt (UC-Berkeley)
• Robert Blankenship (Washington University in St. Louis)
• Shelley Minteer (Saint Louis University)
• David Beratan (Duke University)
• Trevor Douglas, John Peters, Mark Young (Montana State University)
• Chris Pickett (University of East Anglia, UK)
• Thomas Rauchfuss (University of Illinois)
• Daniel (Niels) van der Lelie (Brookhaven National Laboratory)
• Paul King (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)
• Y.-H. Percival Zhang (Virginia Tech)
• And many, many more people not mentioned here…!

Want a transportation problem that could eventually become a bigger headache than oil?

Try congestion - and the fundamental performance limits of human operators!

Productivity losses, the emotional baggage of commuting, missed time with family, losses related to freight, wasted energy, expenses of adding road capacity, etc. We could also expand congestion to one of its major sources – accidents caused by human error, and calculate the economic costs resulting from injuries and fatalities.

Want a date for the history books of transportation?
November 3, 2007 - when three fully autonomous ‘robotic’ cars crossed the finish line after driving along a 60-mile ‘urban’ course without human instruction or guidance. These vehicles responded to real world simulated conditions and made decisions to changing events on an abandoned military base. The winning vehicles were designed by college professors and engineering students competing in the latest variation of (US Military) DARPA’s Grand Challenge. (Video below)

The idea of a ‘driverless car’ is not new. But we are now ready to have a more enlightened conversation that knocks down the walls created by emotional responses to a big 21st century idea - that vehicle based computer systems might be a better platform for the transportation of goods/people than human operators.

We are certainly at the point where it makes business sense to invest in commercializing these systems. And if you framed the issues broadly enough, autonomous vehicles could easily become a state or national policy issue in the years ahead -

In 1990 most people had no use for a ‘home computer’ - no need for a network connection that went beyond voice data. By 2000, the digital divide/’broadband’ access became a national issue of economic competiveness.)

Can we imagine political support for autonomous freight vehicles to keep major trade routes competitive? Or a region’s high adoption rate of autonomous passenger vehicles changing where major employees locate their businesses? When might the President say the words ‘American development of autonomous vehicles’ in a State of the Union Address?

The evolution into autonomous systems is not the same type of ‘leap’ into flying cars. It is real and very attainable given existing infrastructure and trajectory paths of technologies. The biggest uncertainty is the human/societal response. (Hence, my call for a more enlightened conversation.)

Back to DARPA….
Techno-enthusiasts & engineering devotees have been overjoyed with the progress over the past five years of Grand Challenge events. Following the success of the Urban Challenge, most major media outlets treated the event with a snarky ‘futuristic’ tone… Isn’t it scary to think about robots driving on the road. I don’t like that idea…

But for anyone under 40, it might be time to have a more enlightened conversation about the future of mobility. And for entrepreneurs, it is time to consider the tremendous wealth creation of ‘robotic’ autonomous vehicles.

Yes, we are still years away from seeing fully autonomous vehicles on public highways, but we now have a clear picture of the path (and profits) ahead. And the obstacles look like speed bumps.

Why accelerate the development of autonomous vehicles?
To remain economically competitive by improving productivity and generating new wealth systems.
The number of vehicles on the road (globally) is set to explode over the next fifty years – and we might need to fundamentally change our approach to the movement of humans and freight. Increasing traffic flows through autonomous systems is a perfectly reasonable option to explore. I might even say, inevitable.

More importantly, we must also look beyond the impact of autonomous systems on personal travel to consider the market for autonomous vehicles for freight, agriculture, mining, energy harvesting, public/private mass transportation (e.g. rapid bus transit), and applications that we cannot currently imagine.

Autonomous systems are likely to go far beyond our ‘highways’. Consider the role of much smaller (’robot sized’) autonomous carts operating in warehouses, hospitals, factories and offices adding tremendous value to back-end operations.

How many human operated vehicles should we expect by 2050?
A recent NY Times article quoted Ford Chairman Clay Ford Jr. predicting‘…the world’s automotive fleet, now about 880 million vehicles, would grow to 2 billion by mid century.’ [and that] ‘congestion is going to be a big a problem as pollution.’ [And, if I am correct, that does not include two wheeled vehicles.]

There is a cost to supporting these vehicles under the assumption that human drivers will determine the capacity limits of roadways. Balancing strategic investments in autonomous systems might be a more cost-effective way of absorbing more vehicles onto the world’s road networks. It would also require starting enlightened conversations about what is possible within the transportation sector over the next thirty years. (And which directions we’d like to support…)

Autonomous systems, in theory, can radically expand the number of vehicles ‘front to back’ along a road. Imagine a virtual ‘train’ of cars only a few feet apart, working in unison, in constant communication and collectively monitoring all external road conditions. One disruption along the chain of vehicles and the entire system reacts instantly. These systems could also increase the number of vehicles ‘left-to-right’ – now imagine smaller, slimmer, smarter vehicles packed side-by-side in a lane that (today) only holds one vehicle. [And no, I don’t believe in a future for flying cars! So we’ll save the ‘third dimension space’ for another post on regional air travel!]

Why do I believe this problem will appear sooner rather than later?
1) Profit potential / Market pressures - The automobile industry stands to make much more money from developing ‘smart’ vehicles then it might with ‘green’ technologies. I doubt that the ‘post 1950s era’ business model of simply building and selling cars is the platform for growth in the next century. Real money might be made around after market ‘add ons’ and in-vehicle digital services.

2) Making customers happy - Looking at the global market for vehicles it is obvious - ‘small’ is the new ‘big’! Market growth is happening in China, India and elsewhere. The first step into the marketplace? Small, cheap vehicles.

In recent months, there have been widely published media reports about India’s plans for a $2,500 car, China’s plans to sell $7,000 cars in Mexico, Nissan’s plans for a $3,000, et al. The list of brand names goes on and on. But all share the same plan. Build lots of inexpensive cars and jump start global auto sales. (Hence, the ‘oil’ supply problem!!)

It is not difficult to extrapolate this strategy of flooding ‘cheap cars into India/China’s middle class’ out into a nightmare scenario of mega-city congestion.

Looking beyond that first wave of buyers (2010-2025), the auto industry might need a new type of vehicle to keep growth rates going in Asia. ‘Small, cheap and smart’ is a better combination.

A very relevant question is - how might Asian/South Asian cultures respond to markets of autonomous robotic vehicles? Is anyone asking…?

So what about the ‘Robotic’ vehicle race?
DARPA’s Urban Grand Challenge is designed to meet the U.S. military’s goal to replace 1/3^rd of its ‘operational ground vehicles’ be unmanned by 2015.’ (Eight years from now..!!) It has run variations of the Grand Challenge since 2003 and progress has been quite impressive. In less than a decade from now, billions of dollars will be spent on advancing autonomous systems currently being constructed by Professors and Graduate students around the nation.

Putting all the pieces together
The software/hardware components of autonomous systems are coming together quickly. And I cannot see any major barriers. Will it be challenging? Of course - especially around system integration issues! But there is no major component missing from the list that is not currently in developement.

The roadmaps for sensors seem achievable and we can expect breakthroughs in algorithms and integration systems. I suspect we’ll see significant progress over the next 10-20 years. The major barriers will naturally come from the human sphere - insurers, policy makers, transportation agencies, and consumers.

Confronting Congestion with Lightning McQueen™
Yes, there are hurdles ahead with adoption. Yes, I expect humans will always want to have the ‘drive option’ - when roads aren’t congested or it’s just too fun to drive on country roads.

And yes, today the idea of ‘car driving driver’ is a painful, scary concept to accept. But the conditions which shape our attitudes towards autonomous vehicle operations will evolve. And it would be foolish to shape a forecast based on current mainstream opinions and worldviews. This is a future for those born after 1980.

Things will change slowly. It will take time and evolve over stages. Most cars already have alert systems for avoiding backing up into small children/fixed obstacles. By 2015, I suspect semi-autonomous ‘adaptive cruise control’ will be standard in most vehicles. And then we’ll be able to have a more fruitful conversation about the benefits of fully autonomous vehicles. I would expect that the first autonomous systems will NOT be on highways. So the first wave of commercial products should occur in more industrial environments. (warehouses, construction sites, mines, airports)

Who are the players to watch?
Following the event, the NY Times reported “…progress has been so dramatic that the impact is likely to be felt soon and far more broadly, in the commercial automotive world and elsewhere.” Remember that the DARPA contest has been driven by University teams, not major industrial giants.

Autonomous vehicles are really systems of systems. Standards are being established (e.g. (OSEK/VDX), and Japanese companies are calling for standards to push the industry forward. Otherwise the playing field is wide open and revolutionary products are being developed by companies that do not have household names.

A recent Forbes article, takes a more conservative approach to the pace of development, but highlights several companies in position to profit: Cognex (Natick, MA), IBEO/SICK (Germany). I am looking more closely at component builders - Trimble, Evolution Robotics, Sensata, Canesta, RTI, QNX, Novatel, Velodyne (LIDAR). And it is only a matter of time before much more widely recognized names get involved – pick your military contractor and other IT giants such as Samsung, Accenture, IBM (partnership with Magna Electronics), Intel, GE, et al.

Applications we cannot imagine…
Yes, I am excited about being able to fall asleep after leaving New York and waking up in the morning in North Carolina, Maine or Wisconsin. And I’m equally excited to see less stressful commutes, a drop in vehicle fatalities, a reduction in ‘drinking and driving’ incidents, et al.

But I believe the real economic gains of autonomous vehicles will be in areas that are less tenuous than ‘displacing drivers’ on the highways. Freight is always looking for a way to reduce costs. Energy harvesting of remote wind/solar fields is a possibility.

One of DARPA’s sponsors was Caterpillar Construction which ‘now equips some of its bulldozers with a combination of GPS and laser scanners to allow for semi-autonomous earth-moving.” We cannot underestimate the applications for mining and resource extraction.

Why should we care about this now…?
It is time to take the idea more seriously. And have a more optimistic and pragmatic tone when talking with others about this leap forward.

It is almost certain that the technology systems will evolve faster than human organizations. We avoided alternative scenarios developed by futurists in the 1970/80s related to the future of oil supplies (geopolitical issues/peak production) and now we are paying the consequences on catching up.

I believe congestion and the fundamental performance limits of human drivers is next in line- especially given the global sales expected between now and 2050. This is the problem waiting for us to solve in the future. And my belief is that it cannot be solved using human operators. (Yes, yes, of course we’ll drive ourselves on beautiful country roads. But not in urban environments and on congested networks.)

The real question is - how do we have a productive conversation about the role of computer-based transportation systems? And avoid the tendencies to dismiss things are science fiction, too far away for policy makers, or just ‘too scary to think about’.

Video from the qualifying rounds… it’s like watching a baby take its first steps.

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I remembered Barnett’s 2005 TED Conference presentation quite well - but it always struck me as a specific look at the Iraq war and was too conflict centric. (It is still highly relevant and a wonderful presentation…)

A year later at PopTech he delivers a much wider, longer term view of global integration. He explains (better than anyone else, IMHO) that global integration is possible. Barnett gives us his strategies - but in the process, challenges widely held ssumptions about globalization (e.g. China, Iran, Europe, India, et al). I have watched the presentation five times in two days! (I recommend listening to it more than once to really get your head around it..)

Barnett is as funny as he is intellectually engaging. Read the book - or watch this 38 minute presentation. Regardless of his delivery format, he will change how you look at the future of global integration.

Barnett might help us all get a little closer to cultivating a genuine 21st century approach to globalization.

Click directly on the video below:

Depending on his audience, Barnett delivers a very different style but same message. Others are certainly worth the time:

• Audio presentation via ITConversations - here
• 2005 TED Conference presentation - here [23 minutes] More military/battle strategy oriented; The PopTech is more about culture/economic relationships

My highlights:

• We are likely be closer to countries that are ‘most like us economically, not politically’. Don’t try to build democracies. Recognize that many countries transition to market-based economies around strong centralized governments! (e.g. Japan, Singapore, Korea) In thirty years we might be closer to ‘China than Japan, India more than Britain, Russia more than Germany, Iran more than France’
• Peace making forces (SysAdmin) are more expensive than war forces (’Levianthan’) - but will also make you more money in the end. (China is the world’s best SysAdmin; the US is the best Leviathan. We need to leverage this!)
• Interested in security (e.g. trade/ports of entry) Give away the ’standards’ for peace-making just as you give away ‘plug and play’ standards for connecting to the Internet.
• Start looking at Iran with fresh eyes. Today, the people love us, the government hates us’. Iran is ‘ripe for the soft kill of connectivity’… Get connected. Strategy for next twenty years is to just not screw up! Demographics is in our favor - the aging of (young men) is a good thing - older men are less likely to support jihad strategies.
• Look to more pluralistic and market-oriented Asian Muslim leaders/populations to balance worlds
• And finally - the China-US relationship is the key for globalization. Expect transparency, not democracy from China. Appease them and avoid conflict. Resolve Thailand issue sooner rather than later - ‘Archduke Ferdinand lives in Thailand’. Partner with China (as SysAdmin force)- - they are already ‘all over Africa’

Is it time for us to reconsider the economic value of maps? Or, better yet, the value created in map-making?!
Read more below… (more…)

TED 2007 has released its latest video of Hans Rosling’s (of Gapminder.org) visual journey / talk on global health and economic development. Nearly one year after his web-famous TED 2006 talk which highlighted the incredible shifts in average incomes and health around the world between 1950-2005- Hans is back! (Same message, new data, new software - and just as entertaining and engaging….!!)

For those interested in a very fresh look at current conditions related to global development and future market dynamics around global demographics - this should not be missed… (Favorite quote: ‘There are not two types of nations - developed/undeveloped’… ‘there are two hundred types of nations’…’you have to look closely at the data’)

View below…or go directly to TED Talk

Source: TED/YouTube

For entrepreneurs, it is time to start paying attention to the chorus of software/hardware visionaries who believe that the era of multi-core chips and applications is closer than we might imagine. This computing era of multiple processors on a single chip set– goes far beyond improved speeds and will likely lead to entirely new platforms for computing services… (more on software towards the end of the post!)

For now- think Hardware: (Click below to continue…) (more…)

In recent months the NY Times and Wall Street Journal have been running articles about the growing relevance of map-based information as software, marketing and media companies become more interested in the highly targeted world of the ‘local search‘. Some believe that the surprise ‘killer app’ of the Apple iPhone (and other future mobile devices) is not the camera, or the music - but the map-making software (i.e. Google Maps).

Understanding the Age of the Map-maker - Identity Management and Openness

One of the great novelties of our first era of web experiences was the realization that ‘place doesn’t matter’ - we can work from anywhere as long as we have a web connection. In the next era of web services - ‘place matters’. Our location, along with our ability to ‘deposit and extract’ information about the physical world around us, could become a foundation for new economic growth. (Click to continue)
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