Having started off the New Year with two radio interviews on the future of transporation and energy (Coast to Coast ; The Takeaway), I expanded my notes into a list of wish list for the year(s) ahead.
Change happens slowly in the energy and transportation sectors – and the majority of ‘predictions‘ are essentially about anticipating the mainstreaming of ‘old but new‘ ideas less than market impact of truly disruptive systems.
With that in mind – my wish list of more mainstream ideas for 2011 are as follows:
1) Re-framing of the ‘Future of Electric Vehicles’
- The End Game is Integration of Storage and Molecule Fuel Conversion!
‘Electric’ refers to the electric motor (not the battery!). Battery (a storage system) plug-in EVs are only phase one of a multi-decade transition! The most likely future for EVs is integration of molecule fuel conversion and storage! That means batteries + fuel cells!The path forward is about lower cost to mass and that gives clear advantage to fuel cell conversion of chemical fuels to electricity. For journalists that means learning the basics of energy systems. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles ARE electric vehicles. It is accurate to say that Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are not ready today, but it is inaccurate to claim that ‘they are decades away’. Five major automakers have 2015 as target production date for FCVs and it is difficult to imagine storage systems alone meeting the needs of next generation EVs beyond 2020. - Focus on the Manufacturing Footprint & Fleets First!
In 2011, we might finally sell EVs as the banner for 21st century advanced manufacturing. Forget about its eco-footprint, the auto industry’s problem is its manufacturing footprint! The mechanical combustion engine is too big, bulky and causes a nightmare for building various chassis and managing a complex supply chain. Automakers cannot continue with their poor factory capacity utilization and must reinvent how cars are built. EVs provide this opportunity.Electric motors powered by fuel cells and batteries lead to one place – an inevitable lower cost manufacturing platform based on scalable and modular components.
(Read Open source hardware startups; GM’s Skateboard Chassis; Ford’s Global Platform)Also – in 2011 we stop trying to sell phase one of the EV age to Average Consumers, and Focus on Fleets first! Fleets are the best strategy for controlling costs on building plug-in infrastructure and testing operation of EVs in the real world. Let’s wait until third generation EVs based on fuel cell integration and molecule fuel infrastructure are ready- then target the masses! Building out plug-in infrastructure for the masses could turn into a sour investment.
2) Mobility 2.0 – Rise of Software & Entrepreneurship
- Software & the Augmented Driving Experience
The battle isn’t GM vs Ford – it is GM OnStar vs Ford Sync. The software facilitated driving/mobility experience is the big story for the next decade. And it goes far beyond just bringing distracting entertainment into the car. It is about making driving safer and more efficient.Mainstreaming of memes to watch in 2011 ‘connected cars‘ (e.g. Cars talking to other cars) to ‘grow with flow’; and ‘situational awareness‘ based on cars that talk to the human. The mental shift to watch is our evolution from ‘Driver to Captain‘ as we step up the value chain of operating a vehicle vs navigating a complex systems. Software does not replace the human, it augments it and shifts our notion of ‘operation and control’ to a higher level of awareness! - Data-Enabled Mobility Entrepreneurs is another story waiting to go mainstream. The value chain of mobility experiences has a new rung that is enabled by data-driven decisions and services. Startup costs are lower and experience in the industry are not required!
A new generation entrepreneurs are testing social and real-time services around car-sharing concepts. But beyond this feel good strategy of car sharing – it mass transit that could benefit most from more on-demand transit options. Coordinating transit and fleet services is a concept to watch in 2011.
- Pay-as-you-drive/go Business Models – are being tested by insurance companies and could pave the way for the inevitable (and necessary) shift of paying for road infrastructure based on gallons of fuel to a paying per actual use.
- Parking, Parking, Parking – City planners are realizing that market driven parking infrastructure is their great ‘lever’ for change. 2011 could be a big year for changing expectations about ‘free parking’.
- On-Demand Fleets – Start-up UberCab might outshine ZipCar – as it attempts to mainstream personal on-demand transportation solutions. Early adopter Metro residents will refuse to ‘hail’ a cab, preferring to connect directly with drivers.
3) Micro Grid beats Smart Grid
- I am a big fan of the ‘smart grid’ and integration of software, sensors and storage to better manage the flow of electrons. But in addition to selling the incremental innovations of a ‘smarter grid’ – we might recognize the limits of this ‘faster horse’ vision of the future. Distributed power and personalization of fuels is the real disruption for global energy markets. Regulators might empower utilities to advance the rebuilding of our infrastructure around ‘micro grid’ models.
- A very disruptive concept for 2011? Rethinking energy around individuals – not homes. Personal Power becomes a new long-term vision for change. Imagine power plants sold in retail stores at all price points: $1, $10, $100 and $1,000 based on the application. ‘Packets’ of fuels can be purchased from retail shelves.
Bonus Wishes for 2011:
- Investing in Algae
In 2011 – my wish is that the masses realize that Oil comes from Algae, not ‘Dead Dinosaurs’- and that the Hydrocarbon Industry makes massive investments in bioindustrial innovations based on algae/bacteria driven processes. - Shale’s Non-Toxic Future
We figure out non-toxic solutions for shale gas development! There is petrofracking but I can imagine a bioindustrial solution to the cocktails of chemicals needed to develop shale natural gas resources. - Coal Loves Algae
The coal industry wakes up and fully embraces the emerging algae sector as a way to leverage CO2 emissions as a resource for biomaterials and bioenergy - Urban Personal Mobility / Rise of the Chariot form factor
GM buys Segway and launches and announces an urban mobility as service fleet (e.g. EN-V; PUMA)
