The Future of California Transit

Next week I am honored to be a keynote speaker for the California Transit Association’s 47th Annual Fall Conference to be held in Palm Springs, CA.  California transit agencies have evolved considerably across  historical eras of transportation within the state — and based on the signals I see today as a friendly outsider – they are well positioned to become leaders in developing a new vision for integrated transit services across small towns, suburban metros and urban communities.

The future of transit will be shaped by many drivers of change- politics associated with funding, fleet management business models, demographic transitions (e.g. Aging Boomers; Millennial family formation), technology (e.g. sensing and automation software; location-based services), energy (e.g. fuels; fleet electrification), micro-macro economic policies, materials engineering, architecture and urban design – and the list goes on.

The distinctions we will explore in the keynote are between the trends likely to deliver incremental changes (more or less change; moving slowly over time; often constraint-based) versus those forces of change capable of delivering transformative solutions (different capabilities that create new demand) that alter business models and community expectations for  transit experiences.

While it is hard to agree exactly on how transit might evolve in the years ahead – it is easier to imagine that it will be different as the conditions of the world around us change.   Transit, like our modern day automobile industry, is a relatively new market sector and cultural expectation— growing up in a mid 20^thcentury world shaped by consumerism, cheap fuels, and green field highways & suburban expansion.   Transit is well positioned to redefine fleet-based service innovation in a world where these 20th century conditions are increasingly challenged and constrained by new forces of global change.

The vision we need to evolve is one that re-imagines the role of fleets within society– and the seamless flow that can exist across multiple modes of transportation.

Transit will continue to serve communities using a diversified fleet of fixed route buses, light and commuter rail – and on-demand paratransit and door-to-door services.  We can also imagine transit leading the way in mainstreaming opportunities for active transportation (e.g. walking; biking) and delivering new vehicle form factors designed and built for the 21st century where integration, automation and flow are the most important qualities of fleet operation.

My presentation will focus on ways to close the gap between how the world is changing around transit — versus the internal industry talent strategy needed to change community expectations for an expanded role of transit in the next century.  The challenge for California transit agencies will be in identifying and delivering the skill sets and mindsets needed within the state to transition into a 21^st century mobility environment.

Following the talk, I will follow up with a capture and report out on the conversation and look forward to meeting everyone in California next week!